Defensive Gun Use vs. Gun Crime: A Balanced Assessment?

A demonstrator holds a "Guns Save Lives" sign during a Second Amendment March in front of the Michigan State Capitol in Lansing, Michigan, on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020. Emily Elconin/Getty

The Claim in Question

A common assertion in gun rights discussions is that defensive gun uses (DGUs) outnumber criminal gun uses, supporting the "good guy with a gun" principle promoted by the National Rifle Association. As a supporter of Second Amendment rights, I wanted to examine this claim objectively to understand what the evidence actually shows.

Understanding Defensive Gun Use

Defensive gun use refers to using a firearm to protect oneself, family, or others from crime. This includes firing the weapon, but also simply displaying it to discourage criminal activity. The concept is straightforward, but measuring its frequency has proven challenging.

The Data Divide

The debate centers around two primary data sources with vastly different conclusions:

The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

• Government-conducted, twice-yearly poll of crime victims
• Reports approximately 70,040 DGUs annually (33,380 in violent crimes, 36,660 in property crimes)
• Considered more methodologically rigorous by many academics
• May potentially undercount DGUs as it only asks about defensive measures if respondents report being victims of specific crimes
• Doesn't explicitly ask about guns - respondents must volunteer this information

The Kleck-Gertz Survey

• 1993 telephone survey of 5,000 adults by Florida State criminologist Gary Kleck
• Estimated 2.1-2.5 million DGUs annually
• Methodology involved asking if respondents had used a gun defensively in the past five years, then extrapolating to the entire population
• Widely cited by gun rights advocates
• Criticized by researchers for potential statistical flaws

Other Tracking Sources

• Gun Violence Archive: Records approximately 1,678 DGUs annually, but only includes incidents reported to police or media
• Heritage Foundation DGU Tracker: Documents about 702 defensive uses per year from media reports, acknowledging this is likely an undercount

Methodological Critiques

Critics of the higher Kleck estimate point to several potential issues:

• Extrapolating from gun owners to the entire population may inflate numbers
• Mathematical inconsistencies with known burglary rates and home occupancy statistics
• "Social desirability bias" where respondents may exaggerate heroic actions
• "Telescoping" of events outside the time frame being studied
• Small margins of error creating large discrepancies when measuring rare events

Kleck counters these critiques by suggesting gun owners may underreport defensive uses due to:

• Fear of legal repercussions for brandishing weapons
• Distrust of survey confidentiality
• Concerns about reputation damage

What About Gun Crimes?

According to the NCVS data from 2018:

• 14,000 gun homicides
• 470,800 incidents of nonfatal firearm violence (including armed sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault)
• Total: approximately 484,800 gun crimes

The Comparison

Using NCVS data for both metrics:

• 70,040 defensive gun uses annually
• 484,800 gun crimes annually
• This suggests gun crimes outnumber defensive uses by a ratio of about 7:1

The Harvard Injury Control Research Center supports this finding, concluding guns are used more often to intimidate others than in self-defense.

Institutional Positioning

The debate has affected even objective government resources:

• The CDC recently removed references to the 2.5 million figure from its website
• Previous CDC materials had cited a range from "60,000 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses each year"
• Current CDC language acknowledges the variability in estimates and calls for additional research

Why This Matters to Gun Owners

As a Second Amendment supporter, these findings present important considerations:

1. The self-defense argument remains valid even if DGUs don't outnumber crimes. Many Americans successfully use firearms to protect themselves and their families annually.
2. The wide variance in estimates suggests more research is needed before making definitive claims about frequency.
3. Understanding both the potential benefits and risks of firearm ownership allows for more informed personal decisions.
4. The NRA's internal documents confirm self-defense remains the centerpiece of their messaging strategy, regardless of statistical debates.

What We Don't Know

Both sides acknowledge significant limitations in the current research:

• Most studies on this topic are more than 20 years old
• Neither the high nor low estimates have been conclusively proven
• The RAND Corporation found both the 2.5 million figure "not plausible" while suggesting the NCVS likely undercounts
• The true number may never be known with certainty

Health and Safety Considerations

While the defensive use debate continues, researcher David Hemenway notes evidence for increased risks associated with gun ownership:

• Higher suicide rates
• More gun accidents
• Increased homicides, particularly of women in the household

Conclusion

We value the right to self-defense and firearm ownership. However, the data suggests we should be cautious about claiming defensive gun uses outnumber criminal uses without acknowledging the significant methodological challenges in measuring these events.

The evidence indicates gun crimes likely exceed defensive uses by a considerable margin according to the most methodologically sound current research. While this doesn't invalidate self-defense as an important reason for gun ownership, it does suggest that discussions about firearms should acknowledge both potential benefits and risks based on the best available evidence.

Responsible gun ownership involves not just exercising our rights, but also understanding the complex realities surrounding firearm use in America. By engaging honestly with research findings—even when they challenge our preferred narratives—we can better advocate for policies that both protect rights and promote public safety.

How The Atomic Bear Adds to This?

We believe that our pens are a great addition to whoever carry a firearm for their protection. It widens the range of violence we can respond to. Either because the violence against us does not legally warrants the use of deadly force or because we often find ourselves in non-permissive environment. A pen is so unassuming and with the right pen and a little bit of technique can be a great force multiplier. If this is something you would be interested to add to your defensive system, check our pens out: www.theatomicbear.com